Our Future Is Now

Betting our future on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) makes no sense.

Allowing the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry to expand is risky and stands in the way of British Columbians’ hope for a clean, sustainable future. So why is LNG so noxious?

Health – There is much evidence to support the damaging health effects of LNG. The Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment (CAPE) and the Canadian Association of Nurses for the Environment (CANE) have declared LNG a health hazard contributing to respiratory ailments such as asthma and lung disease as pollutants such as volatile organic compounds, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and particulate matter enters the environment. Worse, LNG expansion has a deleterious effect on an already-stressed health care system, increasing costs and reducing access.

Environment – Fossil fuels, like LNG, are the largest emitter of CO2 that contributes to global warming that results in wildfires, heat domes, flooding, storms, droughts, crop failures, and other natural disasters. BC’s six proposed LNG megaprojects will greatly surpass BC’s sector targets for oil and gas emissions and emit more than every gasoline-powered passenger car in Canada in 2021. That just doesn’t pass the smell test and is irresponsible to all British Columbians. Plus, fracking uses valuable water resources and can create toxic waste, impair natural habitats and threaten wildlife.

Fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – are by far the largest contributor to global climate change, accounting for over 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions. As greenhouse gas emissions blanket the Earth, they trap the sun’s heat. This leads to global warming and climate change. The world is now warming faster than at any point in recorded history. Warmer temperatures over time are changing weather patterns and disrupting the usual balance of nature. This poses many risks to human beings and all other forms of life on Earth.
— United Nations

Youth – Global warming is causing ecoanxiety and robbing the future of our children and grandchildren. These youth have contributed the least to climate change but will bear the greatest consequences. 56% reported feeling afraid, sad, anxious, and powerless and 78% say that climate change impacts their overall mental health. With a bleak future, many are opting not to have children either. This must be nauseating for any parent or grandparent and LNG development and expansion only makes this situation more pungent.

Clean Promises – The BC Government’s climate plan calls for a reduction in CO2 emissions, but this can’t nearly be achieved with the planned expansion of LNG. If expansion plans for LNG Canada proceed, the project alone will surpass British Columbia’s carbon budget, making it impossible to cut the carbon pollution they’ve committed to address.

What is Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG?

Watch this excellent and short video primer (1.25 min) of LNG and the situation British Columbians are facing

LNG is natural gas that has been cooled to -162 C, where it condenses into liquid form at 1/600 of its previous volume, making it much more efficient for transport. The natural gas is obtained through hydraulic fracturing – fracking – which directs a high-pressure mixture of water, sand and chemicals at a rock layer, to release the gas inside. The plan is to transport natural gas from northeast BC’s fracking fields to the BC coast via pipelines where it will be cooled into a liquid (called liquefaction) and shipped by tanker mainly to China and Japan, currently the world’s largest LNG buyers. When LNG reaches its final destination, it’s warmed converting it back to natural gas for distribution. This gas is mainly used for electricity generation and industrial and residential heating.

BC’s LNG Proposal

Six LNG megaprojects are proposed in BC at an estimated $60 billion cost. They will transport fracked gas from the extreme northeast corner of the province to liquefaction facilities and terminals on the BC coast. From there it would be exported, primarily to Asia. BC LNG is one of the largest infrastructure projects ever undertaken in the history of the country. Canada is already the fifth largest producer of natural gas in the world and BC LNG projects will enable a production increase of 18%.

A few benefit, but we all pay. And that stinks when affordability is on everyone’s mind.

While many British Columbians struggle to make ends meet, the LNG sector has been pledged more than $6 billion so far with $5.4 billion of it going to one company – LNG Canada. Investing in clean energy, green manufacturing and other solutions is a better bet for our future.

You risk, the industry profits – Who pays for subsidies but you and me. LNG projects will require additional energy diverting essential power away from electric vehicles, heat pumps and other more sustainable industries. A bitter irony is that this expensive new electricity will likely be sold to the LNG companies at below its cost of production creating a huge ongoing annual subsidy. This means that BC will be subsidizing the projects to the tune of many billions of dollars per year.

From clean to dirty – BC’s hydroelectric energy is clean and the envy of the world. So why are we using this low-carbon energy to frack for LNG, a dirty CO2-emitting gas? It would take 8 new Site C dams to meet the energy needs of the five new LNG projects being proposed. This means even more of our tax dollars will go to the gas industry at a time of economic hardship and will also divert essential power away from electric vehicles, heat pumps and other more sustainable industries. Alarmingly, we’ll also stress our water supply and rivers as we face unprecedented fires and drought as we’ve already seen in the last two years. Not to mention the possibility of increased hydro bills. Something smells rotten here, doesn’t it?

Good money doesn’t have to follow bad.

LNG is booming right now but a bust is inevitable, sooner than later. And at that point it becomes a liability for you and me, and our children. LNG is like buying a gas combustion car when all the gas stations are closing. Even more putrid, we’ll be leaving these liabilities for our children to look after, as if they won’t have enough problems already.

Questionable judgement – The International Energy Agency’s Net Zero report makes clear there can be no new fossil fuel developments if we are to keep climate change in check. Yet Canada intends to expand gas production by 24 per cent above 2022 levels over the next two decades with much of it being in BC. This reeks of bad judgement. To limit warming to manageable levels, gas production should have peaked in Canada in 2023 and needs to drop 68 per cent by 2050, according to the United Nations Environment Programme.

Late to the party – LNG is currently in a global boom but a massive increase in export capacity is expected by 2030 leading to a probable oversupply at some point1. Eventually this will butt up against shrinking demand as the world decarbonizes. There is little consensus on when LNG demand will peak but 2030-35 is a reasonable guess. In short, the current boom will very possibly turn to bust by the early to mid 2030s2. With the exception of LNG Canada Phase 1 – which will become operational the Fall of 2024 – all projects have an estimated operations start of between 2027 and 2030. Thus they run a very high risk of becoming uneconomic, a.k.a. “stranded assets” within 5-10 years. At this point, they would not be producing the benefits projected for them. In fact, they could become net drains on the public purse. It defies common sense that major oil and gas companies would be so irresponsible as to make investments with such high risk. However it has happened over and over again. This boom/bust cycle is documented and explained in the academic literature3.

The benefits of LNG

LNG does have it benefits. It is estimated that the proposed projects will create about 10,000 construction jobs and up to 950 permanent jobs at the liquefaction and export facilities. The BC government has estimated that it would generate about $23B in revenues over the 40 year lifespan of the projects given demand continues at present levels but, as explained, that’s unlikely to be the case. First Nations groups, Haisla Nation and Nisg̱a’a Nation, are counted as supporters of two of the LNG projects and point to their participation as a ‘path to achieve healing’.

British Columbians overwhelmingly support $36B electricity grid expansion, renewables over LNG, and the need for an energy strategy. Heat pumps, electric vehicles, energy efficient buildings, renewable energy: these are the solutions that can save British Columbians money while creating jobs and without polluting the environment and driving climate change. There are other options too. Greening manufacturing, introducing climate-smart forest management, preparing our communities for more extreme weather. These make more sense than LNG expansion and paint a picture for prosperous human futures, not gaslit futures.

Let the BC government know that you want a better plan for BC. Stop expanding the dirty LNG industry and focus on clean, lasting opportunities and jobs instead. For your children, grandchildren, and the Planet.